Rafael’s NFL Week 2 Point Spread Picks

Rafael’s NFL Week 2 Point Spread Picks | Current Record: 11-4-1


The second week of the NFL seasons sees those teams at home last week hit the road, while those who traveled to begin the season returning home.  With an almost even split of games between played between winless, undefeated, and a mix of both, Week Two on the NFL schedules promises to offer more surprising results, leaving fans and the media wondering how they were so right, or so wrong about a number of teams.  Here now, is my NFL Week 2 Point Spread Picks. 


Cincinnati (0-1) at Cleveland (0-1):  Bettors quickly grabbed the eight points being laid by the hometown Browns, driving this line down to Cincinnati +6 almost everywhere you look.  That movement is because the visiting Bengals put up such a good fight against the Chargers last week, while Cleveland was looking for the reset button during their one-sided defeat to the Ravens.  With this being the Thursday night game that kicks off Week Two, NFL fans will be able to decide if Baker Mayfield is the third, or fourth best quarterback in the AFC North when his Browns take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals.  Sadly, for fans who would normally be in the Dawg Pound for this game, Burrow is likely to ascend to third, with the former LSU Tiger notching his first win as a professional.  Give me the points and don’t be shocked if Cincy wins outright.


NFL Week 2 Point Spread Pick: Cincinnati +6


Denver (0-1) at Pittsburgh (1-0): The traveling Broncos snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on Monday night after being handed multiple opportunities to win at home against the Titans, and failed to do so, losing on a . Earlier that same evening, the Steelers reminded Big Blue they have a long way to go to return to credibility again.  Pittsburgh is the better team on both sides of the ball in this one, and bettors know it, which is why the point spread has jumped from 4.5 to Pittsburgh -7.5 since Monday. Don’t be shy about laying the points, however, because the Steelers will come away from this game 2-0 with another double-digit win. 


NFL Week 2 Point Spread Pick: Pittsburgh -7.5


Carolina (0-1) at Tampa Bay (0-1):  Which QB with TB as their initials will play better in this contest?  Will it be Teddy Bridgewater, who tried to take Carolina on the road in this NFC South showdown; or will Tom Brady bounce back from only his fourth career opening day loss to become only the second 43-year-old quarterback to post an NFL win?  (For the record, the first three times Brady lost on opening day saw him reach the Super Bowl each time; and Vinny Testaverde is the only 43-year-old QB to win any games, he has two).  Tampa’s opening matchup was tough after not having any preseason games, yet take away an ill-timed pick-six in the third quarter, and the Bucs probably would have made a real game of it for sixty minutes.  Carolina has Bridgewater and Christian McCaffrey, but not much else on their roster this season, and will be outclassed in this game, give up the points (TB -9) and take the Buccaneers to earn their first win of the season. 


NFL Week 2 Point Spread Pick: Buccaneers -9


San Francisco (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1): This week the ‘Niners begin their New York, New York twibill with the Jets before taking on the Giants in Met Life Stadium next week.  The 49ers held the lead going into the fourth quarter against Arizona, and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo left the field with the lead midway through the fourth quarter.  Yet, San Francisco’s defense gave up both leads, and the game last week; a problem they won’t have in New York on Sunday when the face a weaker Jets offense.  The betting public believes that the Jets are bad, evidenced by the fact that the betting line on this game has jumped from SF -4.5 to -7.5 in early betting action.  Even as a Jets fan, I can tell you this line still isn’t high enough, I expect the ‘Niners to win by at least ten points as the Adam Gase watch increases another notch Sunday afternoon. 


Pick: 49ers -7.5


Jacksonville (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0):  Both these teams are coming off wins, but of different kinds.  The Jaguars set aside a Colts team believed by many to be better at home, while the Titans needed all game to put away the Broncos on the road by just two points.  The interesting question that will come playout in this game is who is the better quarterback:  The Jags’ Gardner Minshew or the Titans Ryan Tannehill, with the former playing much better than the latter in Week One.  Tennessee has a better defense than the Colts do, and should be able to control Minshew Mania for this week on their home field; however, in this AFC South matchup, laying nine points might be too much with the Titans coming off a short week.  As a result, I am taking the points (Jaguars +9, down from +11) because Tennessee will, in my mind, win a close game, giving me a cover. 


Pick: Jaguars +9


New York Giants (0-1) at Chicago (1-0):  The Giants were outclassed on Monday night by a superior Steelers team that was better in every aspect of the game.  The Bears stole one from a Lions squad that believed the game was only 45 minutes and stop playing defense in the fourth quarter.  If only for a dropped touchdown pass late, Chicago still would have lost last week.  New York quarterback Daniel Jones is not a good as Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, so Chicago should have a easier time shutting down Big Blue’s weaker offense; while I think Mitchell Trubisky should be able to do enough against the Giants defense to win this game by a touchdown.  Taking Chicago (-5.0) to earn their second win of the season. 


Pick: Chicago -5


Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Philadelphia (0-1):  Los Angeles kept the Cowboys at arm’s length throughout their Sunday night game at home last week, while the Eagles were ambushed by Washington in the second half on the road.  The Rams were not shy about letting Jared Goff throw quick passes and avoid the Dallas pass rush, a tactic they will probably employ often for the rest of the season.  I don’t know which Philadelphia team is the real one from last week; however, even at their best, the Eagles are not that good, and will be the second best team on the field this Sunday.  Bettors have cut this line in half since it opened, making the Eagles a slim 1.5 point favorite; but I don’t think those picking the Rams will need the points as Los Angeles will win this game outright. 


Pick: Rams -1.5


Minnesota (0-1) at Indianapolis (0-1):  If anyone needed a win in Week One, it was both of these teams; but the Vikings couldn’t beat Green Bay (again) and Philip Rivers couldn’t do enough to beat Jacksonville, making this a pivotal game for both squads this Sunday.  The questions I have about this game are will Minnesota be able to stop anyone this season with their defense, and will Rivers be able to find anything left in the tank to push Indy into playoff contention.  Without Marlon Mack, the Colts will need to find a new source of yards on the ground; but likely won’t be able to that this week with Kirk Cousins and company controlling the clock in this game.  This will be a mild upset with the superior Vikings squad winning this game straight up, not needing the +3 points the odds makers are giving them, allowing them to avoid the 0-2 start the Colts face. 


Pick: Vikings +3


Detroit (0-1) at Green Bay (1-0): One the scales of being a team that self-implodes and team that wins the division, the Lions took a big step towards the former and away from the latter last week.  Meanwhile the Packers showed their division why they, and not the Vikings should continue to be the favorites to take the crowd again this season.  Against a banged up Detroit secondary, Green Bay should have easy pickings in the passing game, allowing their Hall of Fame quarterback to put up big numbers and a lot of points in this contest; and until anyone beats the King of the NFC North, Aaron Rodgers will still reign over his division.  This is why laying the six points and taking the Packers to go 2-0 is an easy pick for me, with the Lions moving one step closer to disaster. 


Pick: Packers -6


Atlanta (0-1) at Dallas (0-1):  Two teams that played well enough to lose last week square off this week in Big D.  The Falcons were outmatched by the Seahawks at home last Sunday while Dallas were toyed with by the Rams in losing in primetime.  Atlanta can use the game plan that LA did last week by throwing quick passes, thereby offsetting the Dallas pass rush; the feat that Falcons fans must have, however, is will they be able to stop the Cowboys offense, that, at times had some good moments last week.  Bettors were disappointed in Dallas last week, and have shown it by taking the line of this game down from its Dallas -7.5 opening to Cowboys -5, and in game where bookies expect more than seven touchdowns, I am grabbing all the points I can.  While I don’t think Atlanta will win outright, I will take the points because I think the Falcons will keep things close. 


Pick: Falcons +5


Buffalo (1-0) at Miami (0-1):  Buffalo was able to open their season with a controlled scrimmage against the Jets last week, allowing quarterback Josh Allen to fumble the ball on seemingly every possession without too much fear of being hurt.  This week the Dolphins will offer a big more resistance on defense after holding Cam Newton and the Patriots to just 21 points; but the Miami offense won’t bring much to this game just as they didn’t in scoring 11 points last week.  Bettors have bet up this line from it opening of Bills -3 to Buffalo -5.5; but unless you see a line higher than 7, I would lay the points on the road because the Bills Mafia will be 2-0 after this week’s win. 


Pick: Buffalo -5.5


Washington (1-0) at Arizona (1-0):  Two teams with dramatic wins last week matchup this week in the desert with Washington, fresh off their comeback victory over the Eagles taking on the Cardinals, who upset the 49ers on the road last Sunday.  A win of any kind is nothing to sneeze at in the NFL, however, I think Arizona upsetting San Francisco was a bit more impressive since they beat a better team.  Now, however, the Cardinals need to build on that win by getting another won this week.  Washington probably has the right head coach in Ron Rivera to help them out of the doldrums that is the Daniel Snyder era; but it will take time and patience.  This line opened at and has stayed at Arizona -7 from the beginning of the week; and while it might not seem like a good play to bet against Washington back to back week, I am, because the Arizona Cardinals will end this week 2-0, and at least tied atop the NFC West, the deepest division in the NFL. 


Pick: Arizona -7


Baltimore (1-0) at Houston (0-1):  Someone in the schedule making department of the NFL must not like the Houston Texans; because they opened their season in Kansas City, and this week they play the second best team in the AFC, albeit at home.  Baltimore was another team who didn’t need to wash their uniforms after manhandling the Browns last week; and with Lamar Jackson already in midseason form, facing the Texans defense may not be too much of a problem this week.  Yes, the Ravens are flying to Houston as a 7-point favorite; but having never been a believer in the hype surrounding J.J. Watt, this will be another difficult week for the Texans as they will fall big to Baltimore and drop to 0-2 on the season. 


Pick: Ravens -7.5


Kansas City (1-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-0): Coming off a few extra days of rest will help Kansas City refocus after the raising of their championship banner on opening night and make this trip to the west coast to face their long-time AFC West foes.  The Chargers needed everything they could find to defeat the Bengals, which doesn’t bode well for their changes of upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs, something odds makers and bettors agree with.  This game opened with KC as a 5.5. point favorite but has jumped by a field goal to 8.5 points, which still won’t be enough if you are a Chargers fan to cover this two-score defeat.  Take KC to win going away. 


Pick: Chiefs -8.5


New England (1-0) at Seattle (1-0):  How much to you believe in Cam Newton; and how much do you believe in the Seahawks being a Super Bowl contender?  These two questions will face some stiff competition on Sunday night when the Patriots travel to the Pacific Northwest.  New England (sorry) didn’t impress me with their 21-point, ten-point victory at home against Miami last week, while Seattle did impress me with their road victory against the Falcons.  Do I dare say it, Russell Wilson will be the better quarterback on the field Sunday night; and am I allowed to say that anyone will defeat the yellow suited quarterback of the Patriots when he and the hoodie face Pete Carroll?  This line moved by a half point early in the week, making Seattle a four-point favorite in this game; but I do think the Seahawks are a touchdown better than New England right now, even with Superman playing quarterback for the Patriots. That’s because Seattle has a future Hall of Famer in Russell Wilson, which means I am taking them to win this primetime showdown. 


Pick: Seattle -4


New Orleans (1-0) at Las Vegas (1-0):  Wait, ESPN is going to have a good game this week?  It would appear so with the Saints helping the Raiders open up their “Death Star” of a new stadium, something that “always” makes for great television.  The Saints will need to overcome a Week Two letdown after defeating Tampa Bay last week, while Las Vegas will want to build upon their hard-fought win at Carolina last week in their first home game in the desert.  Bettors have pushed this line up a full point in early action, making the Saints a -6.5 point road favorite, which is about how much better New Orleans is than Las Vegas.  I don’t fear a team like the Saints having a letdown on their Super Bowl LV quest; and I don’t think facing a team in an empty stadium with inferior talent is going to rattle New Orleans at all, lay the points and take your win, because the Saints will go marching down The Stripe and march home 2-0 and leaders of the NFC South. 


Pick: Saints -6.5


 



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