Democrat's Top Pollster Sees Trump’s Path To Victory Starting in These Three States.
PJ Media:If Trump wins all three Needle States the election is 50:50.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538)
Over at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog, Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning the election, while Trump’s chances are just 10 in a 100.
Ah, but there’s a catch.
If you’re skeptical of polling (like I am) and have been looking at other factors in assessing the likely outcome (like I have) then when you look at his map, you see quite a few states listed as toss-ups that Trump is actually likely to win. In fact, Nate Silver himself notes that if Trump wins Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina (all states I expect him to win) Trump’s chances are basically 50/50.
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WNU Editor: This is where it gets interesting .... Playing with FiveThirtyEight’s map tool further, if you add Arizona into Trump’s column, Trump has a 60/40 chance of winning the election. Add Ohio, it goes up to 90/10.
Will Joe Biden win Ohio, Arizona, etc.? Nate Silver says yes. I do not know where Nate Silver is getting his information, but my gut is saying no.
